"Cold Winter Warming Up" Begins to Emerge as Stainless Steel Futures Show Clear Signs of Recovery [SMM Analysis]

This week, the most-traded SS2503 futures contract saw a significant price increase. The opening price on Monday was 12,850 yuan/mt, which then rose to a peak of 13,250 yuan/mt on Wednesday. A slight pullback occurred on Thursday and Friday, with the price closing at 13,180 yuan/mt on Friday. On the macro front, analysis from US banks indicates that the Trump administration might implement aggressive tariff policies, potentially sparking inflation concerns and prompting the US Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach, pausing further interest rate cuts. With inflation trending upward and considering the government transition period, the US Fed may have completed its last interest rate cut of this cycle. Fundamentally, the supply-demand relationship for the 400-series shifted this week to weak supply and strong demand. Downstream demand improved, with some products already out of stock. Market circulation inventory for the 300-series showed cautious sales; although destocking continued, the pace was slower. Overall, the stainless steel fundamentals slightly recovered, remaining in a phase of price rebound and profit restoration. With improving market sentiment, prices are expected to remain stable or rise slightly next week.

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